October 22, 2008

Poll Predictions

With less than two weeks to go before election day, here is the current prediction:

I wanted to throw this up so that in a couple of weeks I can come back and look at it, and see how right, or wrong predictions are. Pollster.com does a "poll of polls" which basically means they analyze the different polls out there, and try to combine them. This is a very common statistical tool (meta-analysis) used in a variety of disciplines. This is the first election cycle that I've been aware of its heavy usage in American psephology.

Looking at the picture you can see incredible challenge facing John McCain, and the danger of complacency for Barak Obama. Election for the President in the US is based on the Electoral College. I have never heard a good argument for why this idiotic system is still in place. What are its practical effects? It divides the country into "Red" and "Blue" states. If you're in a blue state like Illinois where Obama is ahead 20+ percentage points, you will never see John McCain campaign. Also, a vote for McCain in IL will be purely symbolic because it will be overwhelmed by all the votes cast for Obama. Everyone remembers the 2000 election where Gore won the popular vote, but Bush became President by winning the electoral college.

Ok.. where was I...? Yes. Polls are already predicting an electoral college victory for Obama (it takes 270 to win). If he does half as well in some of the toss-up states, then there's the potential for an overwhelming mandate. But, that's also why Obama has now switched from standard campaign speeches to urging voters not to get complacent. What he doesn't need is for someone to think that the other guy's gonna vote because poof - there goes the election. Though, Democrats traditionally have a very strong 'get-out-the-vote' machine: buses and vans picking up voters to take them to polling booths, and all that good stuff.

Looking at the map, it's hard to see how McCain can pull ahead. I think his biggest chance is an energizing of the Republican base to turn out in large numbers in the toss-up states.

So.. Nov 5, we will know.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Will miss Tim Russert with his board this election year :(
Sweety aunty

Helen said...

Sometimes I wonder why people in the non-swing states vote... The decision is pretty much made. Would it really make a difference if I vote?

Bipin Sen said...

In Illinois... No. Only local elections will be affected.

Mrs. Smith said...

I'd consider moving to Ohio or Florida just so that my vote will count. I'm getting scared already....we'll see what happens.